Decision-makers who have survived the recession are like surfers thrown off their boards once too often. At least, that's the view of a colleague whose insights I value.

Esther Ewing of The Change Alliance told me recently she sees the recession as eroding the confidence of decision-makers. And their caution is imposing unintended downstream risks on their organizations.

"They're like surfers who got bashed too many times. Before, they'd just climb back on the board, and 7 times out of 10 they were fine. But now they're thinking about the 3 times they weren't. It's magnified in their minds, so they're more fearful."

Which makes organizations less agile

"Let's say a company is going to buy 360-degree feedback, or coaching, or change consulting, they're putting a lot more cycle-time into the decision. Even people who have the authority to make the decision, are consulting their bosses.

"They may make the same decision as they would 12 months ago, but it's taking longer. And there's a risk it isn't going to happen at all, because it's just too cumbersome.

"But the biggest danger is that they may stop growing their people. If they see people expenditures as cash-out-the-door, rather than recognizing the value they will get from it, they're likely to lose out.

"Growing your people is absolutely necessary. You may decide to try to do it internally, instead of spending the dollars externally. But if you ignore it, your people will say, 'We're not valued. They're not going to grow us.' And ultimately they will go somewhere else."

They won't leave at once

Esther believes that won't happen immediately because people are too fearful to move right away.

So this is the time, she says, to re-assure them. "Because the people they're most likely to lose, are their best people."

Like surfing, it's all about balance. And choosing the right wave.